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Published: August 12, 2010
A fair number of initial public offerings (IPOs) have
flourished in this choppy market . Indian travel site
MakeMyTrip (Nasdaq: MMYT), up as much as +66% in its first
day of trading Thursday, and rental housing software firm
RealPage (Nasdaq: RP), up +30%, are two of the latest
examples.
But woe be to any new
IPO that falls out of favor. If an
IPO moves below its offering price in short order, it can
quickly be forgotten -- that is, until value investors start to
show interest while searching for a bargain. These broken IPOs
can stay down for a while, but for long-term focused investors,
this can be a fertile area for further research.
As the accompanying table shows, April 22nd is a day that will
live in infamy for this group. Four of the seven lagging IPOs
went public on that star-crossed day. (As a bit of trivia, six
stocks went public that day in all, the highest one-day amount
since 2007.)
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Below is a closer look at a few interesting names from the
list…
Mitel (Nasdaq: MITL)
When we last looked at Mitel in early June in a previous survey
of poorly performing IPOs, I noted that shares seemed very cheap
at five times next year's EBITDA. [See
These 'Broken' IPOs May be Worth another Look] Despite that
rock-bottom valuation, shares have fallen further, making this
one of the worst IPO performers of the past few years.
As I noted back then, Mitel's customer base of small to
medium-sized businesses meant that sales would likely only
rebound once an economic expansion spread across many sectors.
Sure enough, fiscal (June) fourth quarter revenue grew just +1%
from the prior year. Yet that stalled revenue base still proved
to be profitable. On a full year basis, this provider of
telephony systems posted roughly $50 million in
operating income.
Mitel also recently admitted that sales remain a bit weak, and
management lowered fiscal first quarter sales guidance by about
-3% to around $160 million. That's right where sales have been
stuck for the past five quarters. The company should generate
solid profits off of that sales base, but investors will clearly
stay on the sidelines until growth is in evidence.
Motricity (Nasdaq: MOTR)
At first glance, this should have been a hot IPO. Motricity was
an early pioneer in the field of mobile phone data services. The
company works with most of the major wireless service providers,
including AT&T (NYSE: T) and Verizon (NYSE: VZ) to
help support and deliver phone applications. But considering the
explosive growth seen in the field, investors may have been
turned off by the fact that Motricity's top-line is only growing
at a +10% to +15% rate.
But analysts at Needham argue that Motricity's best days are
still ahead. They expect sales to rise nearly +30% next year as
many of its projects come to fruition and the company is better
able to recognize revenue against those contracts. And with a
fairly fixed cost base, the company should show even more
impressive bottom-line growth.
Sure enough, just-released second quarter numbers show that
EBITDA doubled on a sequential basis and should rise a bit
further in coming quarters as well. Needham's Mark May sees
shares rising to $11 -- nearly +40% above current levels -- once
investors come to see the steady and rising
cash flow that the company will likely generate throughout
the coming year. If you're looking to play the smart phone
opportunity, Motricity looks like a stock for further research.
Smart Technologies (Nasdaq: SMT)
With Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) as a backer and a successful
13-year track record in online collaboration software known as
white-boarding, you'd think this $660 million IPO would have
found favor with investors. But perhaps the deal was simply too
large for investors to digest, which may explain why the shares
opened weakly and have been under their IPO price ever since.
White-boarding uses the Internet and software such as PowerPoint
to draw and manipulate figures on the screen. It's a lower-cost
approach than some of the more sophisticated touch-screen
oriented collaboration software tools. The company's main suite
of software has found a solid following; helping push annual
sales past the $600 million mark in the
fiscal year ending this March. Equally impressive, net
profit margins exceed 20% and could rise even higher if the
company can boost annual sales toward the $800 million mark by
next year, as analysts predict.
Smart hopes to boost
market share in the education, government and corporate
markets. Yet in the near-term, the company faces some real
pressures. Education budgets are being slashed, as are budgets
in the government and corporate sectors as well. So after a
solid run of growth while operating as a private company, Smart
may be seeing some real headwinds now that it's public. Those
headwinds are unlikely to last too long, as white-boarding is
seen as a real
productivity booster. Perhaps shares will find new favor
when the company releases quarterly results after the markets
close this afternoon.
Action to Take --> These
stocks have moved out of the IPO spotlight and off investors'
radars, making it a fine time to study their quarterly results
and see if the shares have been unfairly punished. Mitel won't
likely rebound before 2011 or 2012, but Motricity and Smart
Technologies could rebound quicker if the companies can deliver
on expectations of strong profit growth.
-- David Sterman
Staff Writer
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