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Published: August 6, 2010
It's like the senior prom for the aviation
business: The Farnborough Air Show in the United Kingdom is a
chance for companies to showcase their wares and tout their
latest sales. It's one way for industry players and investors to
gauge who's up, who's down -- and who's out.
I attended the biannual Farnborough this year, held July
19-25th, which was host to 120,461 attendees and 1,450
exhibiting companies. One company in particular stole the show:.
An aircraft manufacturer based in Brazil, Embraer (NYSE: ERJ).
Remember that name, because it could break up the aircraft
manufacturing
duopoly of Boeing (NYSE: BA) and Airbus, bringing
outsized returns to shareholders in the process.
Embraer racked up $10 billion in new orders for its aircraft at
the show, an astounding feat for a relatively small company
during an improving, but still dicey global
economy.
Notably, U.K. regional airline operator Flybe announced at the
show that it would order up to 140 Embraer regional jet
aircraft, most of them the 88-seat Embraer 1755 model, for a
total value of $5 billion.
Embraer is well positioned strategically, geographically, and in
economic trends. Its aircraft are a best in class product --
they're sleek, "green" and easier to maintain than Boeing and
Airbus' models. Moreover, its home country of Brazil is one of
the fastest growing aviation hubs in the world and should
provide plenty of indigenous demand for its aircraft, both now
and into the future.
There's plenty of room for growth for this feisty company. It's
a relative newcomer to the smaller jet market, with enormous
inroads to its credit in only a decade. Amid a crowded field of
competition from the likes of Gulfstream International (AMEX:
GIA), Bombardier, Dassault and Cessna Embraer will have an
8.2%
market share, up from almost nothing in the last 10 years.
And while new business and an accomplished track record in
relatively little time speak volumes, it's the company's
fundamentals that underscore its attractiveness as an
investment. Embraer's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.4 makes
the stock a relative bargain, considering the company's growth
prospects --not to mention the industry average
P/E is 16.4. Combine these factors with a healthy profit
margin of about 9.1% and an
operating margin of 7.7%, and the picture emerges of a stock
in a good position to benefit from the aviation industry's
renewed growth this year and in 2011.
Embraer's
net income was up +3.7% in the second quarter, remarkable
considering the industry's dire straits during the first half of
this year. The company earned $70.3 million in the quarter
ending June 30th, an increase of $67.8 million from a year
before. The commercial aviation segment, which produces regional
jets, accounted for 61% of this revenue, while business jets
contributed 14.4% and defense 13%.
Embraer's future prospects look secure: the company reported an
order
backlog of $15.2 billion, equivalent to three years of
projected annual revenue. Meanwhile, the company's positive
operating cash generation of $236.4 million in the second
quarter boosted the net cash position to $658.7 million.
Reflecting these positive factors, Embraer increased its annual
revenue projection for 2010 by 5% to $5.25 billion this month.
Action to Take --> Embraer's
line of smaller aircraft are a serious threat to the rest of the
aviation industry -- they're already being put into service in
routes where major air carriers were hitherto deploying bigger
aircraft made by rivals Boeing and Airbus.
And as if a slew of new orders, positive industry trends,
undervalued shares and an enticing home base in one of the
fastest growing economies in the world weren't enough, Embraer
has been rumored to be targeted for a merger with Airbus, in
fact, Airbus's parent the giant aerospace
conglomerate EADS, openly acknowledged its interest in such
a deal at Farnborough.
I see the stock as a serious long-term portfolio candidate for
investors looking an aviation play, although if the merger takes
place, don't be surprised to see the shares pop sooner rather
than later.
-- John Persinos
Contributor
StreetAuthority
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