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Published: August 5, 2010
The largest players in the technology space
garner the lion's share of attention. Investors are obsessed
with Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), as are consumers who have
shifted from snapping up iPods to iPhones and the newest iPad
device. Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) is the other big name that
draws attention with its dominance of the Internet search
business and its Android smartphones.
As a result, investors have historically rewarded these stocks
with rich earnings multiples. Reception issues over the newest
iPhones have sent Apple shares down a bit and now trade at a
forward earnings multiple of about 18. Google trades at a
slightly higher 18.5 times forward earnings.
The downward trends in the earnings multiples for Apple and
Google reflect uncertainty about their future sales and profit
trends. But what about other tech stocks trading at richer
valuations? Do they have something up their sleeve that will
propel growth and generate outsized returns for shareholders? Or
is it just smoke and mirrors?
On a forward P/E basis, the five firms below are anything but
bargains and are priced much more richly than the larger rivals
they aspire to eventually match. The lofty valuations reflect a
combination of their compelling growth prospects, takeover
appeal and solid business outlooks.
Blue Nile (Nasdaq: NILE)
Business: Remote Online Jewelry Retailer
Forward P/E Multiple: 47.0
As an online jewelry retailer, Blue Nile's business is firmly
planted between the digital and real world. Its offering of
diamonds and fine jewelry is as tangible as any merchandise out
there, but its virtual presence is the main reason it can beat
rivals on price and is growing very rapidly.
At a forward P/E that is highest of the companies covered in
this article, Blue Nile has quite a bit of growth already built
into the share price. However, the firm is growing from a small
base, as analysts expect sales for the coming year of only $349
million. They project sales will increase +15.5%, which is
pretty impressive given consumer spending trends are challenging
in the current economic environment.
Earnings should exceed $1 per share for the full year.
LogMeIn (Nasdaq: LOGM)
Business: Remote IT Connectivity
Forward P/E Multiple: 39.0
A fellow investment writer turned me on to LogMeIn, and I just
downloaded the application to be able to print from a laptop in
another room from where my desktop computer and printer are
located. This is just one of the benefits of being able to
obtain remote access to a computer and is one of the first
services to offer this to consumers. Of course, the target
market is company IT departments that are likely to pay for
LogMeIn's premium remote access service.
The lofty valuation is testament to the
company's rapid growth and expectations for more of the same
going forward. LogMeIn was founded in 2003 and went public in
July 2009, but sales have grown +50% on average during the past
two years and earnings have jumped nearly +200% annually during
this limited but impressive timeframe. Analysts are calling for
+26.5% sales growth for the current year to $94 million and only
slightly lower earnings growth.
Advent (Nasdaq: ADVS)
Business: Remote Financial Software
Forward P/E Multiple: 37.5
Stock market volatility during the past couple of years has
resulted in a backlash against investment brokers and advisors
at big financial institutions. Advent is only encouraging this
trend by offering software to help independent investment
managers run their books from home or on the go. This includes
the nuts-and-bolts of managing portfolios, including performance
measurement, creating reports and keeping track of trades.
Sales have grown at an +11% annual clip in the past five years
and
cash flow has been strong --
free cash flow was more than $3 per share during the past
twelve months. The lofty valuation reflects the firm's strong
cash flow, high customer retention ratio and potential for a
larger rival to acquire Advent and its appealing customer base.
Citrix (Nasdaq: CTXS)
Business: Virtual Desktop Solutions
Forward P/E Multiple: 30.5
Citrix is one of LogMeIn's competitors the former of which is a
more established firm offering virtual operating systems and is
targeting business customers to keep growth chugging along. The
company also offers the popular GoToMeeting service that lets
individuals offer online presentations to remote colleagues or
clients.
Analysts expect sales to grow more than +13% for the full year,
reaching nearly $2 billion, while earnings are expected to hit
close to $2 a share. Citrix's valuation looks lofty, but it
reflects takeover potential from a larger rival and pales in
comparison to archrival VMWare's (NYSE: VMW) insane
forward multiple of 57.
Informatica (Nasdaq: INFA)
Business: Enterprise Data Software and Solutions
Forward P/E Multiple: 29.0
Informatica has a reputation for some of the most
technologically advanced solutions to help firms mine their
databases for valuable sales tracking and information
organization. An explosion in digital databases is expected to
continue and is a primary reason analysts expect sales to grow
another +24.3% this year to $623 million.
Informatica will continue to do well as long as top-line growth
continues to be robust. It also maintains partnerships with
larger firms that use its software, though these also count as
rivals that could actually end up acquiring the firm.
Action to Take --> It's hard
to argue against market leaders like Apple and Google trading at
decent valuations, but stretching into higher-priced names that
are more nimble and growing at a quick rate also has its appeal.
Blue Nile and LogMeIn stand out for their robust sales
expectations, while Informatica has appeal given its software is
considered best-in-class. The others offer a mix of growth and
takeover appeal and are solid grounds for further bottom-up
research.
-- Ryan Fuhrmann
Contributor
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